Notes & References

THE LETTER - END NOTES

1.  Multiple studies show that half of all jobs are at risk of automation in Canada, US, and abroad. Some studies show less. All studies caution at the hollowing of the middle class anc creation of more low-paying jobs.

Research:

  • https://mowatcentre.ca/wp-content/uploads/publications/132_working_without_a_net.pdf

  • https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/images/EMBARGOED%20AI%20Economy%20Report.pdf

Press Coverage:

  • https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/20/robots-are-not-destroying-jobs-but-they-are-hollow-out-the-middle-class

  • https://www.technologyreview.com/s/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/

2.  Manufacturing in Ontario contracted when China entered the global manufacturing market in the early 2000’s. Today people starting out in business operations jobs, graphics artists, administration and coordination jobs, etc, are competing with people ½ to ⅕ their salary on open global labour markets like Upwork.com & Fiverr.com

Research:

  • https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/glob_soc_sus_e_chap1_e.pdf

  • http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906

3.  https://www.ey.com/gl/en/issues/business-environment/ey-megatrends-future-of-work

    https://www.upwork.com/press/2017/10/17/freelancing-in-america-2017/

4.  “Due to the Amazon Effect, the entire brick-and-mortar retail industry is slowly shutting down...The impact on job eliminations will be staggering.”

  • https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2017/02/28/how-the-amazon-effect-will-change-your-life-and-investments/#7bb20005e76a

5.  "This is widely documented, that displaced workers are re-employed at lower wages," says Tombe.”

Why wages aren’t going up while unemployment is down.

  • https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-canada-outlook-1.4167888

”The governor of Australia’s central bank [said] when he asks firms that are struggling to find workers why they do not pay more, they ‘look at me as if I’m completely mad’ and deliver a lecture on how competitive the world has become.”...“hawks think there is little room to boost real wages by running labour markets hotter. If they are proved right, it will be hard to refute the argument that structural changes in the economy, rather than weak demand alone, have stacked the deck against workers. Governments will then have to find novel ways to respond”, The Economist, June 30th, 2018 Print Edition. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/06/30/the-rich-world-needs-higher-real-wage-growth, Copy available here: https://pod.redfish.ca/posts/100cbed05f800136662b35162d7f1629


6.  Entrepreneurship is in decline in Ontario and in the US. Most small businesses are self-funded, and if people have less money, there will be less new businesses starting.

http://on360.ca/30-30/entrepreneurship-and-business-development-transition-briefing/

https://www.brookings.edu/research/declining-business-dynamism-in-the-united-states-a-look-at-states-and-metros/

7.  Wages have been flat and in slight decline since the late 1970’s https://www.eoionline.org/blog/x-marks-the-spot-where-inequality-took-root-dig-here/

8.  http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2018/02/22/canada-the-middle-class-dream-shrinking-rapidly/comment-page-1/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2016/04/23/lost-dream-90-of-americans-are-worse-off-today-than-they-were-in-the-early-1970s/#2f78c70a5e1c  

9.  https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-unemployment-rate-declines-to-lowest-in-four-decades

10.  Share of low-income jobs nearly doubles since 2001, and share of jobs that are minimum wage increases FIVE times since 1997.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/number-of-ontario-workers-making-minimum-wage-doubled-over-8-years-study-1.1488563

https://www.policyalternatives.ca/higher-standard

11.  https://globalnews.ca/news/3434447/over-half-of-canadians-are-200-or-less-away-from-not-being-able-to-pay-bills/

12.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2016/01/06/63-of-americans-dont-have-enough-savings-to-cover-a-500-emergency/#2788b86b4e0d

13.  http://www.livingwagecanada.ca/index.php/blog/canadas-working-poor-and-precarious-employment/

14.  Most of the people in poverty, are already working in all western countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_poor#US_compared_to_Europe

15.  2/3 of recipients of the Ontario basic income experiment were already working. https://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/8126566-majority-of-basic-income-pilot-sign-ups-are-working-people/

16. Basic income will unleash entrepreneurship. https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/07/26/basic-income-good-for-business_a_23490194/?utm_hp_ref=ca-homepage

17.  Share of income of bottom 50% in Canada declines by 28% since 1982 while top 1% grows share of income by 53% https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2016009-eng.htm

18.  Billionaire Hedgefund manager Ray Dalio’s firm Bridgewater associates shows how the US economy (and Canada is not far behind) should be seen as two separate economies, one of the bottom 60% that is increasingly precarious, and one of the top 40%. The decline in fortune for the bottom 60% is leading to reduced spending and a decline in economic growth. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-biggest-economic-social-political-issue-two-economies-ray-dalio/

Similarly in Canada we see real incomes for the bottom 50% in decline between 1982 and 2015, as well as share of income as in point 17. https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/09/10/income-inequality-lars-osberg-book-canada_a_23522815/

19.  1000 Economists signed this letter in 1968: https://imgur.com/FKLmMH2

20.   Statements by Bank of Canada Governor in 2017:

“Canada Child Benefit adding 0.5% points to economic growth this year, that’s pretty significant in the process of closing the output gap.”

11:04 seconds into this podcast http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/why-the-governor-of-the-bank-of-canada-worries-about-your-debt-1.4372779

“child benefit program has been highly stimulative. You can see that in the consumption figures. So we would not be where we are today if that had not occurred."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/bank-governor-credits-liberal-stimulus-with-stronger-economy-1.3500252

21.  Correlation between start of CCB payments summer 2016 and beginning of unemployment decline

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/17a_VaRSROnWkRjd9QK06CLGqHTOkjQGI6VoS79SXgsc/edit#slide=id.p8

22.  https://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew-coyne-three-points-on-the-gst-to-end-poverty-guaranteed-income-sounds-like-a-good-deal

23.  Canada has Canada Worker Benefit, US has the EITC, and UK has the Working Tax Credit. Effectively this means that governments already know that the economy is structurally unable to produce living wage jobs!

24.  https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/a3akm4/why-basic-income-is-a-mental-health-issue

25.  https://www.reddit.com/r/BasicIncome/comments/7b7qts/crime_rates_significantly_reduced_criminal/

26. Small towns and rural regions would see the largest stimulus effects of a basic income. Cities generate the most taxable economic activities, so a provincial or national basic income would in effect be a way for the cities to pay out more money to rural and small towns, if the basic income was the same amount across the province or country.